Labour Market Briefing – London Economic Region in July 2016

By Emilian Siman

Unlike the significant losses in employment for the month of July 2016 at the national level (Draaisma, 2016, August), the net employment in the London Economic Region has changed slightly compared to the month of June of 2016:  a net loss of about 200 positions coming from approximately 600 new jobs minus about 800 jobs lost in July. As illustrated in Table 1 below, the employment change (600 new jobs) in the June-July comparison came out from around 3,200 new full-time positions added during July while about 2,600 part-time positions were lost.

“Not in the labour force” group dimminished by 800 people in July while the labour force in the region grew by about 1,400 people during the same month. Participation rate marginally grew relative to the prior month, only by 0.2%.

Over the course of a year, relative to July of 2015, the changes in the labour force characteristics in the London Economic Region during July of 2016 were much larger: around 200 positions were added to employment (resulting from around 9,300 full-time jobs minus about 9,200 part-time jobs) and 4,400 more people unemployed. Overall, the labour force grew by 4,500 people whereas the “not in the labour force” group grew only by 200 people. This longer time comparison raises some points of concern particularly regarding unemployment and unemployment rate. On the positive side, one would observe a slowly growing participation rate.

At a higher level of analysis these changes could be perceived insignificant showing a resilient and tight regional labour market maintaining an unemployment rate close to the natural rate of unemployment.

Table 2. Labour force survey (LFS) estimates - (3 month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality)

Labour force characteristics

Jul-15

Jun-16

Jul-16

change Jun-Jul 2016

% change Jun-Jul 2016

change Jul 2015-2016

% change Jul 2015-2016

Population 

(x 1,000)

553.2

557.5

558

0.5

0.09

4.8

0.87

Labour force

(x 1,000)

358.6

361.7

363.1

1.4

0.39

4.5

1.25

Employment

(x 1,000)

339.6

339.2

339.8

0.6

0.18

0.2

0.06

Full-time employment

(x 1,000)

272.9

279

282.2

3.2

1.15

9.3

3.41

Part-time employment

(x 1,000)

66.8

60.2

57.6

-2.6

-4.32

-9.2

-13.77

Unemployment

(x 1,000)

18.9

22.5

23.3

0.8

3.56

4.4

23.28

Not in labour force (x 1,000)

194.7

195.7

194.9

-0.8

-0.41

0.2

0.10

Unemployment rate (percent)

5.3

6.2

6.4

0.2

x

1.1

x

Participation rate (percent)

64.8

64.9

65.1

0.2

x

0.3

x

Employment rate (percent)

61.4

60.8

60.9

0.1

x

-0.5

x

Data source: Canada Statistics, CANSIM, Table 282-0122

Note: Statistics Canada rounds the values in this table to the nearest hundred.

Diving deeper into the data, when one compares June 2016 to July of 2016, the goods-producing sector added around 2,600 jobs whereas the services-producing sector lost about 2,000 jobs. The additions in the goods-producing sector were mostly due to the growth in the regional Construction sector, about 3,500 new positions respectively. Unfortunately some of the job gains in Agriculture and Manufacturing sectors realized during June have been lost during July of 2016. In the year-long comparison (July  2015-2016), the job gains in the Construction sector are dropping while the job losses in Agriculture and Manufacturing sectors appear to be growing (see Table 2 below). But in the year-long comparison the goods-producing sector lost 2,300 jobs.

On the other hand, relative to the month of June of 2016, the jobs that were lost in the services-producing sector resulted mainly from the job losses suffered by the regional Educational Services sector, the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector and Public Administration sector. Within the same June-July comparison, the Information, Culture and Recreation sector, the Health Care and Social Assistance sector, the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing sector and the Business, Building and Other Support Services sector added jobs during July (see Table 2 below). In a year-long comparison the situation is reversed, the services-producing sector added 2,500 jobs. Within this time frame comparison, the sectors that added the most number of jobs were: Health Care and Social Assistance, Accommodation and Food Services, and Other Services (except Public Administration).

Table 2. Labour force survey (LFS) estimates by North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) - (3 month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality)

 

Jul-15

Jun-16

Jul-16

Change Jun-Jul 2016

% change Jun-Jul 2016

change Jul 2015-2016

% change Jul 2015-2016

Total employed, all industries

339.6

339.2

339.8

0.6

0.18

0.2

0.06

Goods-producing sector

94.4

89.5

92.1

2.6

2.91

-2.3

-2.44

Agriculture [111-112, 1100,  1151-1152]

12.2

12.6

11.7

-0.9

-7.14

-0.5

-4.10

Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas [21, 113-114, 1153,  2100]

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

Utilities [22]

1.5

x

x

x

x

x

x

Construction [23]

26.2

23

26.5

3.5

15.22

0.3

1.15

Manufacturing [31-33]

54

52.9

52.7

-0.2

-0.38

-1.3

-2.41

Services-producing sector

245.2

249.7

247.7

-2

-0.80

2.5

1.02

Wholesale and retail trade [41,  44-45]

51.4

44.8

44.4

-0.4

-0.89

-7

-13.62

Transportation and warehousing [48-49]

14.3

14.3

13.8

-0.5

-3.50

-0.5

-3.50

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing [52-53]

18.9

17.4

18.1

0.7

4.02

-0.8

-4.23

Professional, scientific and technical services [54]

17.2

17.5

15.7

-1.8

-10.29

-1.5

-8.72

Business, building and other support services [55-56]

18.6

17.8

18.3

0.5

2.81

-0.3

-1.61

Educational services [61]

25.6

28

25.9

-2.1

-7.50

0.3

1.17

Health care and social assistance [62]

44.8

49.8

50.6

0.8

1.61

5.8

12.95

Information, culture and recreation [51,  71]

9.8

12.5

14.2

1.7

13.60

4.4

44.90

Accommodation and food services [72]

20.2

24.9

25.1

0.2

0.80

4.9

24.26

Other services (except public administration) [81]

11.3

14.5

14.4

-0.1

-0.69

3.1

27.43

Public administration [91]

13.2

8.1

7

-1.1

-13.58

-6.2

-46.97

Data source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table 282-0124

Note: Statistics Canada rounds the values in this table to the nearest hundred.

 

These numbers illustrate the intense regional labour dynamic, but like the hot summer sun, they are testing our community strength in overcoming economic difficulties. Although the forecasts for the region called for some corrections (Ontario Chamber of Commerce, 2016), the region remains optimistic about its near future economic opportunities. Manufacturers such as Ramsden Industries, Sodecia and Hudson Boat Works, along with the local IT firm Digital Extremes, Western University and the giant retailer Sobeys are a few examples of investors in the regional economy that made news during July of 2016.

References

Draaisma, M. (2016, August). “Overall trends” in Ontario not bad despite job losses, Brad Duguid says. Posted August 5, 2016, CBC News, Toronto, Canada. Retrieved August 5th, 2016 from http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/brad-duguid-employment-figures-job...

 

Ontario Chamber of Commerce (2016). Ontario economic update 2016. London Economic Region. Retrieved August 5th, 2016 from http://www.occ.ca/advocacy/ontario-economic-update-2016/london-region/

 

Government of Ontario logo

 

 
LEPC logo Worktrends logo
The Local Employment Planning Council 
is supported by: 

 

In partnership with:

EMOWPDB logo Literacy Link South Central logo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The LEPC project is funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Government of Ontario. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Ontario.